Problem with current approach is that it starts with poor metrics, such as batting average and then tries (a la Bill James) to figure out true contribution of player. Instead, why not calculate for each possible point in game (e.g. 4th inning, up 3 to 2, 1 out, man on 1st and third) what the chance of winning is. Then the batter will either lead game to same score with one more out or to a position with more runners or more runs--which will have a new probability of winning. Value of player is that batter's average contribution to increasing the chance of winning the game.

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