What do antiviral drugs and free markets have in common? Unfortunately, nothing—but to save our own lives we should make that connection, and soon. The World Health Organization’s epidemiologists warn that Asian “bird flu,” because it is extraordinarily lethal, could kill tens of millions worldwide if it becomes contagious between humans. That’s more than a one in a thousand chance of death for everyone on the planet. How do they know the risk isn’t greater? They don’t. The 1918 flu epidemic, to which bird flu’s lethality is compared, killed 40-50 million, after all, and that was before global air traffic.
The drug firm Roche makes an antiviral drug effective against bird flu, but only governments can buy it in advance. Britain has stockpiled goodly quantities of this drug, Tamiflu—at last count, enough for 25 percent of its population. But Canada had purchased enough for only 5 percent of its population, and the Bush Administration had purchased enough Tamiflu for less than one percent of the US population —playing a risky, quite possibly deadly game of American roulette. Roche understandably does not want to bear the risk of stockpiling Tamiflu, whose ultimate sales depend on whether an epidemic emerges.
The life-saving solution? A free market for Tamiflu. Specifically, an auction. Let individuals worldwide bid on a dose of Tamiflu, to be delivered in the event they get bird flu. The auction could set a fixed price per dose, and require bidders to name the number of doses they would purchase simultaneously and donate to the World Health Organization, to allocate to those who contract bird flu. If the potential risk of death is really on the order of one in a thousand, Roche should get lots of bids. And then it could further ramp up Tamiflu production, and the world would have more Tamiflu on hand in case of a bird flu epidemic.
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Although I have nothing against being prepared for a disaster, the kind of business morality prevalent in most drug companies and in big business in general will no doubt encourage genetic engineers to create artificial world threatening diseases to promote the very profitable sale of remedies. The proliferation of computer viruses for no provable profit (at least, so far) indicates how nasty humans can be to each other and if the profit motive is added, the future of the human race looks very dim indeed.
wow, this is a good idea and you really might consider bringing this to Roche. I'm not sure why their vacacine is only available to governments though. That's strange. It seems like they'd have huge commercials with sucessfull looking business men gleefully avoiding the bird flu while their asian business partners die or something. Regardless, taken the nature of how these things work I'd imagine the only thing keeping Roche from selling to individuals is probably some government regulations. There's probably a reason while this medicine isn't available by prescription.oh wait a second. are you sure it's vaccine for humans? I'm show they have one for poultry oh no wait your right, American bio-tech firm, swiss company:Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases in Bethesda, has said talks are under way with Roche and "the highest levels" of the U.S. government on a plan to build a Tamiflu plant in the United States.
Although no agreement has been announced, Roche spokesman Terry Hurley said Thursday that he expected a U.S. plant to be "up and operating by fall.''